The downturn is getting worse but politicians make merry!

The economy is showing new weaknesses almost every day and the pain is just starting to be felt. I have been wondering how the return of Indian workers abroad will affect the country's economy. Those workers have been sending home billions of dollars every year, substantially adding to our foreign exchange kitty and also boosting the spending power of relatives back home. 

Now with that money flow drying up and the workers back home without work, it could be a double whammy for the Indian economy.

States like Kerala, with virtually nothing to show for industrial production or agricultural production, are going to be the worst hit.

Sadly, no one in the government or outside seems to have realized the impact this slowdown will have on the economy. Things are going to get a lot worse and there seems to be no concerted effort to mitigate the aftershocks. 

The stimulus packages that are being talked about and offered are going to be just drops in the ocean, I feel. 

Today the father of a guy doing his executive MBA from a top business school told me placements have become an issue. That surprised me, because I had thought that there would always be top B-schools. And that is also an indicator or how deep the rot is.

Unfortunately, the politicians are still playing politics and have little time for the common man. Why should they worry anyway: the more suffering there is the more opportunity for them! 

It is going to get worse, not just for the IT crowd

The Satyam fiasco has hit India, Inc. hard, or it is not the case, depending on who you are talking to. But a lot of people in the know say Ramalinga Raju was caught out because he was unlucky. They say a lot of big companies in India, among them some real heavy hitters, are doing exactly what Raju has been caught for doing. Just that they are a lot more smarter and are better connected.
The thing is the IT crowd is worried. For some years now they were the high-fliers in India - in professional and social circles. But all that has changed. There are reports from Bangalore that IT pros have lost their sheen in the marriage market, the most important indicator of social status in India. Well, that has been happening for a couple of years now, but has gained momentum with the setting in of the slowdown and now with the Satyam scandal.
The IT sector is not the only one affected by the slowdown, but a lot of people in others sectors are still in denial. They seem to think India won't be affected much by the downturn and things will be as hunky-dory as they have been.
Wrong. I was talking to a stock broker yesterday and he confirmed my worst fears: the downturn is yet to reach India and things will be pretty bad by March this year. Of course, a lot of companies still have the money to weather the slowdown but it would be a grave mistake to think the party of the yesteryears will continue.
And you have to worry about the millions of youngsters who will graduate from our colleges this year, some of them having taken courses promising jobs in the sunrise sectors, after paying huge fees. They will add to the unemployment and social problems in the country; the surplus in the labour market will see salaries take a dive. Especially in such blotted sectors as retail. Someone told me a couple of months back that a retail professional with just 2 years experience was commanding a salary of Rs 36 lakh a year! Those are definitely going to be rationalised and it will have an effect on consumer spending.
I am sure we haven't even seen the beginning of this downturn yet. And a lot of people think we won't be affected by it. More scary, think of all those expats, especially from the Gulf countries, who may start to return if that area of the globe is hit by the recession.