Indian economy: a lot of denials and some crooks

So Ramalinga Raju of Satyam actually siphoned off money from the software services giant, contrary to what he said in his open letter to the company's Board before his arrest. Well, I had all along held that while Raju might have been doing a con job, he was unlucky in getting caught and there are bigger villains in corporate India who are not caught because they are smarter. I still hold to that view.
That apart, I think the economic scene is going to get much worse and the worst is yet to come. I still can't understand how analysts and thier ilk can say Indian business is going to do well in 2009. I suspect this is an attempt to fish in murky waters. A stockbroker recently told me how he had a difficult time fending off people who approached him wanting to invest in stocks, even with borrowed money. And mind you, these were just ordinary lower middle class people with average incomes of 10-12k per month. With their being no dearth of people willing to be taken for a ride, I am not surprised at the pundits prophesying that India will rock in 2009 while the world economy will crumble!
And here is a NYT article about how investors may be losing patience with Google and Microsoft. Yes, the same New Economy giants who many other companies are hoping to model themselves after. And here we are talking about a rosy picture for the economy.! View through rose-tinted glasses, I would say.

Can Obama manage those expectations, and those forces of change?

Finally Barack Obama is president of the United States. A judging by the crowds that attended his inaugural, it seems at least some Americans think the new president has some sort of magic wand to pull the country out of the many problems it is mired in currently, and most of which are being blamed on George W Bush.
It evokes in me memories of the first time Manmohan Singh became India's Finance Minister. The Congress had promised to roll back prices in the run-up to those elections but once he took over Mr Singh famously said: "I do not have a magic wand (to roll back the prices!)".
Well, at least Mr Obama did not say he had a magic bullet for all of America's problems but a lot of Americans and people in other countries seem to think so. The biggest challenge for Obama would be managing those expectations.
And Obama could be classified as a success or failure depending purely on how he manages those expectations, not on how he really performs on the ground.
Will the world change with Obama? I doubt so. The changes we are undergoing right now are so momentous and old solutions simply cannot work. Indeed, we may not realize it but these changes are so sweeping, they are not amenable to any solutions. My feel is they will run their course and trample over any force that is trying to channelize them, till they change the world order and society in hitherto unseen ways.
Will Obama be a victim of those forces, or will he be able to keep his head up?

Democracy, my foot! Kick out the jokers

The national political scene is hotting up but, sadly, there seems to be no player in the horizon who can enthuse the masses in the next General Election. There if the BJP-NDA, Congress-UPA, and an assortment of parties that can or cannot coalesce into a Third Front.
But the situation of the ground is that no one is really interested in whether it is the Congress or the BJP or the BSP who will rule India. Because for the common man, all of them are the same.
All of India's political parties bat for the rich and powerful. The policies that are announced for the common man are done so as an afterthought. This kind of government that we eulogize as the magic of democratic rule is actually is a government of exploiters who can put the deeds of the Raj to shame.
Why do we, the taxpayers, tolerate these fools and criminals and exploiters? Beats me.
Is there no way out? Is there no freedom from these jokers?

The Sinhala chauvinists are back. Is anyone listening?

If the LTTE had helped bring the Tamil ethnic discrimination problem in Sri Lanka to the world stage, it has also helped the most to damage that cause. With its ruthless terror tactics the Tigers have ensured that there is little sympathy left in the world for them, and by extension to the suffering Tamils in the island nation.
Even India, which sent in its troops to help the Tamils has almost washed its hands off the problem, it seems. Domestic political compulsions are forcing Indian politicians make some noises once in a while, but it is clear no one is serious about the Tamils' problems. So why should the Sinhala fundamentalists in Lanka worry about those Tamils?!
The fact is, the Lankan army's recent victories over the LTTE has also ignited some amount of Sinhala fury and the situation is now almost a throwback to the 1980s when killing and maiming Tamils mercilessly never raised eyebrows.
Indian politicians here are shedding crocodile tears over the Israeli bombing of Gaza, but they don't seem to see the suffering of Tamils next door. Obviously, Gaza is a way to attract Muslim votes in the country and guarantees political visibility. The poor Tamils have anyway "allowed" the LTTE to hijack their agenda, and they don't have any supporters left in the world stage, except a bitter diaspora that is hardly visible here .
Stranger still is the fact that even Tamil politicians are not worried about what is happening in Lanka. Look at this leader from the Sunday Leader. And Then They Came For Me
It is obvious the Sinhala chauvinists are back at their old game, intimidating and killing, with government help.
But for our politicians in India, votes lie in slamming Israel, not Lankan government, and crying for Gazans, not the Tamils in our neighbourhood.
For the Tamils in Lanka, well-meaning Sinhalese, and others in the world who are concerned about the state of violence in that island nation, hope lies in the Tamil people of India. Is anyone listening?

It is going to get worse, not just for the IT crowd

The Satyam fiasco has hit India, Inc. hard, or it is not the case, depending on who you are talking to. But a lot of people in the know say Ramalinga Raju was caught out because he was unlucky. They say a lot of big companies in India, among them some real heavy hitters, are doing exactly what Raju has been caught for doing. Just that they are a lot more smarter and are better connected.
The thing is the IT crowd is worried. For some years now they were the high-fliers in India - in professional and social circles. But all that has changed. There are reports from Bangalore that IT pros have lost their sheen in the marriage market, the most important indicator of social status in India. Well, that has been happening for a couple of years now, but has gained momentum with the setting in of the slowdown and now with the Satyam scandal.
The IT sector is not the only one affected by the slowdown, but a lot of people in others sectors are still in denial. They seem to think India won't be affected much by the downturn and things will be as hunky-dory as they have been.
Wrong. I was talking to a stock broker yesterday and he confirmed my worst fears: the downturn is yet to reach India and things will be pretty bad by March this year. Of course, a lot of companies still have the money to weather the slowdown but it would be a grave mistake to think the party of the yesteryears will continue.
And you have to worry about the millions of youngsters who will graduate from our colleges this year, some of them having taken courses promising jobs in the sunrise sectors, after paying huge fees. They will add to the unemployment and social problems in the country; the surplus in the labour market will see salaries take a dive. Especially in such blotted sectors as retail. Someone told me a couple of months back that a retail professional with just 2 years experience was commanding a salary of Rs 36 lakh a year! Those are definitely going to be rationalised and it will have an effect on consumer spending.
I am sure we haven't even seen the beginning of this downturn yet. And a lot of people think we won't be affected by it. More scary, think of all those expats, especially from the Gulf countries, who may start to return if that area of the globe is hit by the recession.

Madrassas to be made equivalent to CBSE, what next?!

So the RSS has come out against the Central government's move to make madrassa certificates equivalent to the CBSE. This is yet another move by Arjun Singh to cash in on minority appeasement. This, to say the least, is playing with fire.
Soon you will be going for proportional representation in Parliament, and the way this kind of appeasement is being carefully calibrated, no one is going to say anything against it, too.
How can madrassas, which mostly teach the Koran and Shariah and are mostly run on a curriculum developed by that bigot Mughal Aurganzeb, be n thought to be equivalent to the CBSE syllabus? That question would beat any thinking, rational individual, but not crafty politicians like Arjun Singh, who will do everything to hold on to power.
The insidious nature of this kind of politics is evident from the fact that no one other than the RSS wants to oppose it owing to the fear of being seen as politically incorrect.
And no one is raising the corollary question either: if Christians and Muslims can have their own board exams in secular India, why not the Hindus? Is it a punishment for being a majority in this country?
Islamic terrorism and fundamentalism have thrived in India just because of these self-serving politicians. But I can see a glimmer of hope now. Post-Mumbai terror attacks, people are raising their voices. And sooner or later, these parasite politicians will be washed away in the anger that is welling up.

An Opportunity Beckons Sri Lanka in 2009

Killinochchi has fallen. The LTTE has lost its face, and the symbol of its power. But where does the Tamil people and Sri Lanka and LTTE go from here?
Most probably the LTTE will wage a guerilla war from the jungles. But with their supply routes cut and their manpower depleted, the outfit will steadily lose its teeth. Expect more internal power struggles.
The more important question is, will the Lankan government use this opportunity to create a more inclusive political process? The Tamil people have suffered for long - from fanatic Sinhalese, self-serving politicians and last but not least from the power-hungry LTTE.
Let us hope 2009 will bring in hope and cheer for the island nation, and peace and prosperity to one and all.

Abhaya case shows up Indian judiciary

The Kerala High Court's handling of the bail application of the accused in the Sister Abhaya murder case has shown up the rot in the judiciary in India. Not only has the court overstepped its limits, it has also tried to tarnish the image of the CBI and went against the earlier judgements of several courts in its very clear attempt to help the accused go free.
Well, this was not unexpected. The Christian clergy in Kerala, nay India, have always been power brokers. During the time of the Raj they used their clout with the British to get their way; in democratic India they slice and dice the willing Christian flock into pocket electorates so they can wrest concessions from whoever is in power.
But all that is expected of this breed of stinking manipulators. The question is how long can we citizens allow our power-hungry politicians to continue in this vein? They will do everything -- including undermining the unity of the country -- to cling to power. The current one-upmanship on minority appeasement is just one face of the problem.
I think there should be a movement to sweep these scum out of power. The earlier the better. Because the deeper this rot sets in, the more violent and radical will be the reaction against it.